Mike Huckabee: The Road to the Nomination

After A Decisive Iowa Victory And A Surprising Third Place Finish In New Hampshire, Mike Huckabee Leads The National Polls And Is Strong In Upcoming Primary States


“Following Huckabee’s Iowa Win, 25% Of Republicans Nationwide Now Rate Him As Their Top Choice For The 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Up From 16% In Mid-December.” (Gallup Poll, www.gallup.com, 1/8/08)

Republicans Rudy Giuliani Dropped To 20 Percent Of The Vote, While Fred Thompson Has 12 Percent And Ron Paul Collects Four Percent. “Support for Giuliani, who chose not to compete in Iowa and has been shut out of the media spotlight, has also dropped, from 27% to 20%. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are essentially holding steady at 12% and 4%, respectively.” (Gallup Poll, www.gallup.com, 1/8/08)

 And Mitt Romney? He’s Sandwiched Between Fred Thomson And Ron Paul – Commanding Single Digit Support After Spending Tens Of Millions Of Dollars. “After losing the expectations game in Iowa by coming in second, Romney is now suffering a decline in national support, putting him well out of range for the lead. His current 9% of the vote is his worst showing in the race since early October.” (Gallup Poll, www.gallup.com, 1/8/08)


 In New Hampshire, Romney Had Everything Going For Him: He’s A Part-Time Resident; He Spent Millions; And The Last Three Massachusetts Politicians To Run In The Primary All Won. “It would be hard for Romney to explain a loss, especially because he is a part-time resident from a neighboring state who spent millions of dollars here. The three previous Massachusetts politicians to run for president here – Michael Dukakis, Paul Tsongas and John Kerry – all won the New Hampshire primary.” (Boston Globe Website, 1/4/08)

 Financed By Tens Of Millions Of Personal Funds, Romney Ran Over 7,500 Commercials Targeting New Hampshire Voters – All For Naught. “The Neilsen folks are releasing daily updates of the total number of TV spots run by candidates in this race. Number one, everywhere, is Mitt Romney, who has aired 4010 commercials in the Boston/WMUR designated market area (this includes Manchester), 2262 in the Burlington,VA and Plattsburgh, New York markets, and 1258 ads in the Portland-Auburn market, which covers Maine and parts of Northeastern New Hampshire.” (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com, 1/7/08)

 So Sen. John McCain’s New Hampshire Primary Victory “Dealt Another Serious Blow” To Mitt Romney’s Struggling Presidential Bid. “McCain’s victory dealt another serious blow to Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Mr. Romney campaigned hard and spent heavily as he sought wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, only to come up short in both states.” (New York Times, 1/9/08)

The Boston Globe: “Romney’s Failure To Win Either Iowa Or New Hampshire Puts Another Dent In His Presidential Ambitions.” (Boston Globe, 1/9/08)

Romney’s Defeat Left Him “Scrambling For Political Survival.” (New Hampshire Union Leader, 1/9/08)

One Romney Supporter On His Candidate: “As Governor Of Massachusetts, You’d Think He Would Have Some Pull In New Hampshire.” “[Romney supporter Mike Doogue, a Manchester independent] wonders how Romney can rebound. ‘As governor of Massachusetts, you’d think he would have some pull in New Hampshire,’ he said.” (New Hampshire Union Leader, 1/9/08)

 Voters Did Not Buy The New “Change” Mitt Romney. “America, meet the new Mitt Romney. Having been walloped in Iowa by upstart Mike Huckabee, the man who loves data took a look at the dismal Iowa numbers and concluded America is looking for a ‘change’ candidate. Mr. Romney is now presenting himself as that man, the person who can transform Washington, or at least do it better than his main rival here in the Granite State–four-term Arizona Sen. John McCain.” (The Wall Street Journal Asia, 1/7/08)

A Reputation As A Flip-Flopper Made “The Romney Reinvention” Even More Problematic. “[N]ow comes the Romney Reinvention, which has brought with it a new peril, given his reputation as a flip-flopper. It’s especially problematic in a state like New Hampshire, where voters witnessed Mr. Romney’s tenure as governor of nearby Massachusetts, and are better able than most to mark differences between then and now.” (The Wall Street Journal Asia, 1/7/08)

The Wall Street Journal Asia: “A Second Loss Would Deal Mr. Romney’s Campaign A Nasty Blow–One From Which There Might Be No Recovery. That Isn’t The Kind Of Change Mr. Romney Has In Mind.” (The Wall Street Journal Asia, 1/7/08)

Now, The Candidates Head To Michigan, Where “Romney Might Be Down To His Last Out.” “If politics were baseball, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney might be down to his last out. And the playing field would be Michigan, as Romney campaigns Wednesday in East Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids with his political fortunes riding with Tuesday’s GOP primary.” (The Grand Rapids Press, 1/8/08)


 College Of Charleston Professor Jack Bass: “Ever Since There Was A First Presidential Primary, The Winner Of The Republican Primary In South Carolina Has Won The Republican Nomination For President.” (www.abcnews4.com, 12/19/07)

 In Poll After Poll, Mike Huckabee Leads The Field In South Carolina, Holding A 13-Point Leading According To Real Clear Politics.



4 responses to this post.

  1. Brian,

    I think it would be wiser to come across as Pro-Huck than Anti-Romney. I am inclined to vote for Huck, but the way his surrogate went after Romney last night on H & C after the NH primary put a pretty bad taste in my mouth. (I know you can’t always control what your underlings do or say.)

    A few months ago when it looked like Huck had no chance, you indicated that if Huck went down, you would probably back Mitt (over on Burrell’s blog). If Huck goes down (which I still think is possible), Mitt might be the best option.

    The other side of the equation – which is important – is that coming across so “Anti-Romney” comes across as gloating (needlessly and probably presumptively) and will leave the Pro-Romney people feeling hesitant to join Huck when/if Romney drops out.

    Huck (and his supporters) need to accentuate the positive here – Huck pulled off a great victory in Iowa, he came in a surprising third in NH and has risen greatly in the polls. He is the clear-cut social conservative in the race. He is a gifted communicator who connects with the average Joe.

    Highlight Huck’s values. Answer specific charges, but keep the focus pro-Huck, not anti-someone else.

    BTW, I saw a C-Span spot where Huck gave some examples of specific situations and asked if the audience would give clemency to the individual in question or not – it was a powerful spot and he made his point well. He answered the specific charge and he did so in such a way that showed the charge was bogus and showed that you can’t just reduce things like that to a numbers game.

    Anyway, just my thoughts,



  2. Frank,

    Your thoughts are good. I don’t disagree with them. The purpose of this posting is to show what reporters are saying about both campaigns. There is no doubt that I want Huck to win and Mitt to lose.

    However, if Huck does go down, I will probably still go with Mitt. There are really no other socially conservative choices in the race.

    Other than the flip-flopping charge, I don’t think the post is an attack on character. I certainly don’t intend for it to be, though I have seen some very dishonest things taking place in several candidates’ organizations.

    But the reality is: I don’t want BOTH of them to win the nomination. I want to help Huckabee and not Romney. That said, I will certainly endeavor to keep my postings positively slanted. That is my nature anyway.


  3. Brian,

    Have you heard the rumor that Huckabee and McCain worked out some secret deal that they would choose each other as running mates should one of them get to that point?

    I know it might sound like nonsense. But McCain’s weakness is the Evangelical community, which is Huckabee’s strength. And Huckabee’s weakness is the moderate Republican’s and independents, which is McCain’s strength.

    In any case, it’s interesting to ponder which of these candidates would work best together.

    I wonder what kind of effect the positive or negative campaigning against each other would have on the candidate’s choice of a running mate. And if McCain and Huckabee become the front runners, will there naturally be too much blood shed between the two that they couldn’t end up working together?



  4. Posted by Mark on January 10, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    All I can say is Huckabee has won me over. His wonderful sense of humor and his candor are refreshing.

    He hit a big time home run in the debate tonight with his response to the question about wives submitting to their husands.

    Go Huck!


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